Pennsylvania Perspective

I watched MSNBC last night for commentary on the Pennsylvania Primary. As usual, Pat Buchanan was obnoxious- he is the ONLY commentator that feels the need to interrupt others. Why do the hosts of these shows not call him out on that??

The general meme that emerged was that Superdelegates should be worried that Obama cannot win the big Electoral College states like PA. Obama cannot put Hillary away. This is a HUGE problem for the Democratic Party. Obama is weak and suffered from Wright's comments and his own bitter comments. Panic in the streets!!

Rachel Maddow, who deserves her own show on MSNBC, put things in perspective. I will echo her comments, and add my own. Rachel reminded everyone throughout the night that Pennsylvania was the perfect Hillary state. The demographics fit her- older, white, blue-collar voters. The Democratic Party (read old-style machine) was backing Hillary from Day One. I'll go even further- Hillary Clinton had every advantage over the rest of the field in this election cycle. She not only has the Clinton name, but she has Bill's organization. Hillary has had years to plan for this primary. She had the time to fortify the organization that Bill built in the '90s. The Clinton name still has a lot of weight within the party. Hell, if it were not for Obama, I would probably be a Hillary supporter. I, like so many others, remember the Clinton Years and want it back. True that these next Clinton Years would be Hillary Clinton Years, but I thought Bill would still be around. As this process started, I realized that Bill's time was over, and this new Clinton may not be the same person (duh). It is exactly the advantages of organization, name recognition, and time that led Hillary to having a 20 point lead over Obama in PA just six weeks ago, and it is here that I truly depart with Russert, Buchanan, et al over what Hillary's victory means.

If Obama had a 20 point lead over Hillary six weeks prior to a state primary, and he only won by 10 points, what would the headlines read? Would the media see that as a big victory? Hillary had all the advantages going in. She even continued her "kitchen sink" attacks on Obama. Jeremiah Wright's comments, Bittergate, and charges of elitism were thrown at Obama. Given those attacks and a 20 point lead, Hillary should have blown Obama out by at least 20 points. Instead, she got away with a 10 point win. Now, 10 points is nothing to sneeze at, but when you are down 150+ pledged delegates, 10 points doesn't work in your favor. Chuck Todd tried to make that very point last night. His analysis was that the battle for pledged delegates is over- Hillary has lost that fight. She can still catch Obama on popular vote, and then make the case to Superdelegates that she can win the big states versus McCain.

That last part- Hillary can beat McCain in big states because she beat Obama. Non-sequitor Hillary! The majority of new voter registrations are for Dems. Unless these new voters are actually Republican sleepers, they will vote for the Democratic Nominee. Hillary's victories in California and Texas were secured mainly through early voting, with many of the new voters and last minutes decisions going to Obama. That says that while Obama was still relatively unknown (see above), as his campaign got rolling, more people have been drawn to him. Pennsylvania and Ohio were exceptions to this- the majority of PA voters that decided very close to the primary went with Hillary.